#  The More Temperatures Rise, More Will Be Forced to Flee 

 





January 11, 2018

 

 

As global temperatures continue to rise, so will the number of migrants seeking asylum in Europe, says a [new study](http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6370/1610.full) recently published in *Science*. Climate change is predicted to increase the number and intensity of floods, droughts, and other extreme weather, and has already exacerbated conflict, displacement, and food insecurity in parts of the world. And if current climate change trends hold, say the authors, it will also mean that there will be as many as [660,000 additional asylum seekers per year](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/21/devastating-climate-change-could-see-one-million-migrants-a-year-entering-eu-by-2100) to the European Union (EU), by 2100. Increasing migration has implications for both the health and wellbeing of individuals in transit as well as the capacity and quality of health systems in host countries.

The authors analyzed asylum applications to the EU between 2000 and 2014 from 103 countries—approximately 351,000 asylum applications per year—and compared them with information on environmental factors, like temperature and weather. The more temperatures in a country rose above the 68 F (20 C) that is best for agriculture, the more people migrated from their home countries.

To learn more about this critical nexus of climate change, migration, and health, explore the [Incubator’s curated resource pack](https://repository.gheli.harvard.edu/repository/collection/resource-pack-migration-and-displaced-populations/) on the subject.



 

 

 



 

 

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